CHINA is making final preparations to host South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a pre-Christmas trilateral summit. While the talks have a broad focus, North Korea may rise to the top of the agenda with Kim Jong-un threatening a major end-of-year provocation (a "Christmas gift") for Donald Trump unless the US president makes concessions in the stalled nuclear talks.

The "new path" Pyongyang has threatened if Washington fails to deliver on this agenda could include resumption of intercontinental ballistic missile launches capable of reaching the US mainland (suspended since 2017), and/or the possibility of new nuclear tests. These scenarios would represent a serious setback for Mr Trump as he enters his re-election year. He has cited the regime's moratorium on these activities as a key foreign policy success of his presidency.

A further reason why the peace process may be approaching a pivot point is the fact that China and Russia are, this month, calling on the UN Security Council to terminate sanctions on key North Korean exports like coal, iron ore and textiles, with the nominal goal of enhancing the livelihood of the civilian population. Moscow and Beijing, in a further proposed easing of the screws on Pyongyang, are also seeking to rescind a ban on the estimated 100,000 North Korean nationals working abroad and repatriating earnings which critics claim support the nation's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.