The Business Times
SUBSCRIBERS

Woes to watch: China's economic slowdown could be more impactful

Published Tue, Jan 15, 2019 · 09:50 PM
Share this article.

EVEN as Asia wakes up Wednesday morning to news on the outcome of the momentous vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal - and potentially the fate of the UK government - politicians elsewhere in the developed world too are awash in a host of problems that surely detract from managing the economy in a time of slowing global growth.

While Europe stands its ground in the face of questions on its standing, even its raison d'etre, from the Brexit challenge, its biggest economies are mired in challenges both immediate (French protests) and brewing (Italian populism, German political transition). Consensus forecasts of 1.9 per cent GDP growth for the EU economy in 2019 have been dismissed as overly optimistic, given a "lack of team spirit" among EU leaders. Across the pond, meanwhile, the US federal government remains "shut" for a fourth week over internal political bickering. As noteworthy as each of these developments across Europe and America would be, in terms of domestic impact and perhaps denting business and consumer confidence elsewhere, potentially the grey swan of greater consequence worldwide is arguably the ongoing economic slowdown in China.

To be sure, it has been several years since the Chinese economy came off its heady double-digit growth rates, settling at around 6-7 per cent in recent years. The slowdown, as has been well noted, has not so much stemmed from any cyclical downturn as is part of an ongoing, complex economic restructuring that will be years in the making. Erstwhile "factory of the world", abundant cheap labour fuelled China's spectacular economic growth for over three decades. The country is now in the throes of a transition to a consumption- and services-driven growth model, and out to transform itself from being a manufacturing power to a global leader in digital and other technological innovations such as AI. Inevitably, the GDP growth - based on economic activities of higher quality and value, rather than being driven by quantity and volume - will ease to a more sustainable rate.

BT is now on Telegram!

For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to  t.me/BizTimes

Columns

SUPPORT SOUTH-EAST ASIA'S LEADING FINANCIAL DAILY

Get the latest coverage and full access to all BT premium content.

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Browse corporate subscription here