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The mid-terms are all about Trump

History and polls favour a Democrats' triumph next month, but polls can be wrong

Published Tue, Oct 23, 2018 · 09:50 PM
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NUMBERS do not lie, and the fact is that the political party that controls the White House has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 35 of the 38 mid-term elections since the Civil War.

And you do not have to be a political scientist to figure out why that happens. Supporters of the opposition party, frustrated that their man or woman is not occupying the White House and that the sitting president has been pursuing policies that run contrary to their political agenda, are motivated to go out and vote in local elections for their party's candidates. They want to "send a message" to the White House, hoping that the control of Congress would allow their lawmakers to hinder the president's ability to pursue policy and produce an electoral momentum that would help their party retake the White House in the next presidential election.

But then, those who belong to the president's political party are quite content watching their man getting the job done and are not so driven to take a day off work and to spend a few hours standing in a long line to vote for some unknown candidate running for a lone House seat. They are happy with the status quo in Washington and expect things to continue the way they are.

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