MARKET movements are unexpected yet surprisingly rational in hindsight. What nobody expects now - and hence is likeliest - is 2 or 3 more great bull market years.

My 2022 forecast is a wiggly, sideways, often scary global stock market until autumn, followed by a strong rally delivering double-digit 2022 gains that may last into 2024.

A key global market driver will be America's political cycle. Since 1925, stocks fell in about half of the United States presidents' inaugural years. The other half? Usually hugely positive. That was 2021, with world stocks soaring 25.3 per cent till Dec 27.