Apec leaders in Bangkok to discuss ways to accelerate recovery of global economy

As world leaders descend on Bangkok for a third multilateral summit that begins on Friday (Nov 18), expectations of furthering regional cooperation on trade and investment in a big way remain fairly low given the divisive global geopolitical climate.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit takes place in the Thai capital, with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his officials hoping to make the best of a difficult situation and boost the country’s political and economic links with the rest of the bloc’s 20 member economies.

This is the first time that Apec leaders are meeting in person for their annual summit since 2018. Two main players won’t be present, however. US President Joe Biden, who was in Cambodia and Indonesia for the Asean and G20 Summits, respectively, will be back in Washington to attend his granddaughter’s wedding at the White House on Saturday. Leading the American delegation in Bangkok will be his Vice-President, Kamala Harris.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is another confirmed absentee. As of press time on Wednesday, it is First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov who will be his representative in Bangkok, although it is still anyone’s guess if the Russians will turn up at all in the wake of the missile attacks in Poland and Ukraine on Tuesday night.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will attend the summit, and he will be in Bangkok from Thursday to Saturday. He will be accompanied by senior officials from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The PMO said that the leaders will discuss ways to accelerate the recovery of the global economy through the promotion of balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth as well as trade and investment. This includes leveraging innovative approaches such as the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy Model.

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Apec leaders typically issue a joint communique at the end of their summit to set a path forward for the regional forum, but given the US-China trade war and the war in Ukraine, analysts say the prospects of reaching a regional consensus appear dim.

“I would be surprised if there’s any joint statement from the leaders’ meeting,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University. 

“It won’t be surprising if we see walkouts and boycotts involving Russia’s presence. The positions are just so wide apart and the sticking point on Russian aggression seems non-negotiable.”

Thailand convened eight ministerial meetings this year, and officials were not able to reach a consensus on a joint statement because of “divergent views” on the wording of certain paragraphs, said Thani Thongphakdi, Thailand’s Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs.

Thailand is hopeful that the leaders’ summit, which takes place on Friday and Saturday, will address pressing regional concerns such as food and energy security, supply chain disruptions and reopening borders to international tourism.

On Apec’s long-standing aspiration for a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), Thani said Thailand is hopeful that this week’s meeting will at least agree on a work plan for 2023 to 2026, to establish a long-term framework for the FTAAP dialogue. 

The Apec economies account for 38 per cent of the world’s population, nearly half of world trade and 61 per cent of global gross domestic product.

Thailand is more optimistic about the adoption of its BCG proposal, which Bangkok hopes can be endorsed as a document.

The BCG model was adopted by the Thai government in 2021 as a national agenda to guide the economy on a more climate-friendly, sustainable, inclusive path led by value-added and innovation-driven industries.

It is not without its fair share of detractors at home. Greenpeace Thailand, in an open letter to Apec leaders, described the BCG model as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”, designed to promote big business solutions to climate change while avoiding “polluter pays” policies and neglecting community-based options.

“We need a robust, green and circular economy that is inclusive and provides a fair distribution of wealth and power… an economy that offers sustainable growth and development and promotes the resilience of our communities,” said Tara Buakamsri, the country director of Greenpeace Thailand.

For Thailand’s Foreign Ministry, the introduction of the Bangkok goals on BCG this year represents a new direction for the regional forum that has traditionally been “big business-oriented”.

“Since 1989, Apec has been built on the concept of open trade and investment,” said Cherdchai Chaivaivid, Director-General of the ministry’s department of international affairs. “This is the first time that a sustainability agenda will be incorporated into the mainstream conversation at the highest level of the Apec structure. This is no longer about profit maximisation.”

Thitinan said that the Thai government is banking on BCG to be the main takeaway from its year-long chairmanship of Apec.

“While fuzzy, it does offer low-hanging fruits and common ground on sustainability, inclusivity and resilience,” he said.