Lower trough, deeper cuts
AS US-CHINA trade tensions have oscillated between de-escalation and escalation, the growth slowdown in the Asia-ex-Japan region has unfolded in slow motion.
Trade tensions won't break Asia's recovery but downside risks have risen
CHINA'S policy easing, which is getting into full swing, has enabled its economy to stabilise, and we have seen some tentative signs of spillover into the rest of the region.
When easing risks become reality in Indonesia
WE see Bank Indonesia cutting the policy rate by 75 basis points in 3Q19 amid a weaker US dollar, a more dovish Fed, low domestic inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit in Indonesia.
Domestic demand takes centre stage
WE see three themes impacting the 2019 outlook in Asia-ex-Japan, and we expect GDP growth to moderate to 6 per cent year on year from 6.2 per cent in 2018, staying within a tight range.