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The philosophical failings of forecasting

Investors have missed big gains or sold at lows due to their tendency to stay wedded to predictions.

FORECASTING FOLLY :Believing in predictions allows people to overlook their own ignorance, discount the role of randomness and generally overestimate their own skills.

THIS time of year is peak forecasting season - holiday retail sales, lists of stocks you should buy this year and of course, market forecasts all keep economists, strategists and analysts busy. I always make time to mock some of the sillier approaches to prediction-making. Indeed, I have been...