The AI age will be disruptive but not necessarily dystopian for workers

IT IS hard to overestimate how tumultuous the last few years have been for workers around the world. A global pandemic led to lockdowns for most people except essential workers, followed by cautious, partial returns to work or job losses in industries that never fully recovered. Almost immediately, this was followed by the disruption of war and soaring energy and food prices, causing a decline in real wages.

Technology adoption, already accelerating before and during the pandemic, potentially poses a new wave of transformation, especially to white-collar work through the rise of generative AI. And now, a strong push for a much-needed green transformation is also leading to expectations of future displacement in carbon-intensive roles in favour of growth in emerging green jobs and skills.

Each new change alone would be difficult for affected workers to navigate, but together they have disrupted livelihoods broadly and created widespread uncertainty about the future. When uncertainty is this high, forecasting can help, not to generate firm predictions, but to provide ways of thinking about the challenges ahead, and preparing better for the multiple futures that may unfold.