The Business Times
SUBSCRIBERS

Trump-Xi meeting should set the tone for broader US-Asia relations

Published Wed, Apr 5, 2017 · 09:50 PM

OVER the coming two days, the attention of much of the world - certainly much of Asia - will be on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at Mr Trump's private retreat in Florida.

At one level, it will be a "get to know you" event. The two are very different in many ways. Mr Trump tends to be off-the-cuff, combative and unpredictable, while Mr Xi is typically cautious, scripted and non-confrontational. The two have never met before, so the personal chemistry and the tone of the meeting will themselves be of much interest.

The agenda for the meeting is not clear. The White House has officially indicated, vaguely, that the two leaders will discuss "global, regional, and bilateral issues of mutual concern". But in the run-up to the meeting, Mr Trump had tweeted that it would be "very difficult", adding that the US "can no longer have massive deficits and job losses". This is consistent with Mr Trump's campaign rhetoric which was full of sound and fury about how China was "raping" the US economy. He had threatened to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese goods and declare China a "currency manipulator". Neither has come to pass, although Mr Trump continues to be obsessed with the US trade deficit - most of which (US$347 billion in 2016) is with China. This headline number is an exaggeration in that it does not focus on the value-added by China, which is the correct measure and which, for many products, is much smaller. The allegation that China is a currency manipulator is also false - China has, in fact, been trying to prevent its currency from falling as a result of capital outflows and the yuan has strengthened this year. However, that said, there are legitimate issues of weak US market access in China in many areas (such as technology, social media and a range of services) as well as questions relating to intellectual property protection. Mr Xi might make concessions in some of these areas. Chinese companies might, as they often do, also announce some big-ticket purchases of items such as planes and capital goods during Mr Xi's visit, as well as some large, job-creating investments in the US, which would enable Mr Trump to claim some credit. In return, however, China will want US reassurances on its core interests, notably relating to Taiwan. Mr Trump has backed off from an earlier threat to make US recognition of Beijing's one-China policy conditional on other negotiables, but China might want a more explicit and categorical declaration from Washington that the long-standing policy is accepted and respected.

KEYWORDS IN THIS ARTICLE

BT is now on Telegram!

For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to  t.me/BizTimes

Columns

SUPPORT SOUTH-EAST ASIA'S LEADING FINANCIAL DAILY

Get the latest coverage and full access to all BT premium content.

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Browse corporate subscription here