The submergence of emerging markets
The world has become more equal, but that trend will be in danger if emerging markets enter a sustained slowdown
IT WAS an off-the-record, online conversation about the state of the world. Nobel laureates, former government officials and hedge-fund managers held forth on geoeconomics, warfare, artificial intelligence (AI) and other lofty topics. But here’s what struck me: two hours into the discussion, no one had yet uttered the phrase “emerging markets”.
China came up, of course, but only in relation to what might happen to Taiwan if Donald Trump returns to the White House. India’s alleged growth miracle last year went unmentioned. Turkey was mentioned only in the context of Middle East politics. South Africa? Nope. Brazil? Remind me: where exactly is Brazil?
What a contrast to the mood only a few years ago. I remember a dinner at the annual World Bank/International Monetary Fund meeting, during which a half-dozen European finance ministers stared into their salads and feigned patience as a minor official from the People’s Bank of China received all the questions from the assembled investors.
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