UK Conservatives lose collective self-confidence as election approaches

WITH the UK Labour Party riding high in opinion polls, comparisons are often made between the 2024 potential election result and Tony Blair’s huge triumph in 1997. However, some Conservatives now fear a far-worse outcome.

The specific reference here is to what is sometimes called the “extinction-level event” of Canada’s 1993 federal election, which saw the then ruling Progressive Conservatives lose more than 150 seats and win just two – it was one of the worst-ever defeats for a governing party in the Western world. This ultimately led to the organisation’s winding up, and a merger into a new Conservative Party of Canada.

On the face of it, there are some political similarities between Canada in 1993 and the United Kingdom in 2024. For starters, tactical voting in a first-past-the-post Westminster-type electoral system can give rise to unusual outcomes.