2020: Likely no let-up in turbulence and manoeuvres in South China Sea
BEIJING'S decision to deploy its new aircraft carrier, the Shandong, in South-east Asian waters is an unmistakable push against US naval presence in the region.
China's first aircraft carrier built entirely in the country, the Shandong is the largest warship in its arsenal. The new vessel left Dalian last month, passed through the Taiwan Straits, traversed the South China Sea and then arrived in Sanya, its home base. Its voyage was clearly designed to send a message to Taiwan, which is in the throes of an election campaign, and to all the other nations with claims in the region as well as to the US Navy.
Typically, to boast a world-class navy, China would need a minimum of three aircraft carriers - at any one time, the first carrier would be at sea, the second would be completing its sea deployment and the third would be in dock for maintenance and upgrades. China looks set to construct a fleet of three to six more aircraft carriers. Beijing has also been deploying vessels that look like fishing trawlers but are actually part of its maritime militia. Then, there is Beijing's military base in Cambodia, still under development, which when completed would be its first naval foothold in South-east Asia.
The Shandong commissioning ceremony was a grand affair in Hainan province in the South China Sea. With its nine dash-line, China claims all of these waters and islets. Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Brunei are the other claimants. Clearly then, the ceremony was to signal Beijing's intent to back up its claim with military hardware. There is now every reason to assume that Shandong and the other aircraft carrier in its fleet are likely to be joined by two to four more ships and are intended as a counter-weight to the US Navy in the Pacific.
Meanwhile, the US Navy has been conducting freedom of navigation in the region. Last month, a guided-missile destroyer cruised past the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam. And a littoral combat ship steamed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef, a rocky outcrop in the Spratly Islands chain. Beijing took control of the atoll in the mid-1990s and built up the site with underground ammunition storage, aircraft hangars, missile bunkers and radar and communication arrays.
Washington seems determined to assert that, as the US Navy puts it, "Mischief Reef, a low-tide elevation in its natural state, is not entitled to territorial sea under international law". This was a repeat of an earlier show of force this year when the USS McCampbell sailed near the Paracel Islands, and the USS Spruance and the USS Preble sailed near Mischief Reef in the Spratlys. Both events drew condemnation from Beijing. Washington carried out five such operations last year and four in 2017, compared to four in both 2016 and 2015. It remains to be seen if the Chinese, in deploying the Shandong to South-east Asia, stand ready to pick up the gauntlet when the next US warship conducts a freedom of navigation exercise.
At the same time, the US and China also remain locked in an all- out trade war. Although there is now a preliminary deal, the most difficult issues have not been resolved. But even this "phase one" agreement - China buying more American farm produce and providing better protection for US intellectual property in return for some cuts in US tariffs - has not been signed. Given all that is going on between these two superpowers, expect next year to be even more turbulent than 2019.
