Abe and Xi have a 'carpe diem' opportunity at Apec Summit

WILL they - or won't they? That is the vitally important question facing the rest of Asia as speculation mounts over a possible bilateral meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Apec leaders' summit in Beijing starting this week. If the meeting does take place, then its form or symbolism will be as important as its substance. Even if the two leaders do no more than reaffirm the importance of relations between their two countries, that will be seen as a political breakthrough in long-frozen relations.

Both Prime Minister Abe and President Xi have the political will, it seems, to improve relations between Japan and China. But the problem will be finding a mutually satisfactory way of making concessions without losing face. This will require diplomacy of a high order. They start off - as Asia scholar and professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo Yasuhiro Matsuda puts it - both being "strong leaders". This could work in their favour if they are prepared to compromise, or against them if they allow pride to rule.

Auguries have appeared favourable lately. Both leaders have refrained from public criticism of each other's policies while behind-the-scenes diplomacy between Tokyo and Beijing has continued at a high level, not least that involving former Japanese leader Yasuo Fukuda and President Xi. But avoiding mutual attacks is not the same as making friendly overtures and this is where things could fall short, even if Mr Abe and Mr Xi do exchange niceties in Beijing. A grudging nod towards each other could be worse than no encounter at all. Compromise and maybe "chemistry" will be all.