Brexit's demographic challenge

SINCE the June 2016 referendum, the overall trend in British opinion polls on Brexit has been towards a small but definite majority in favour of remaining in the European Union (EU). Though most people are entrenched in their positions, there seems to have been some movement in the centre ground, but another factor in the change is a gradual movement in the relative weight of the pro- and anti-Brexit blocs as a result of ageing.

In June 2016, 90 per cent of voters over 65 took part in the referendum, and 60 per cent of them cast their ballots in favour of leaving the EU. Among the 50-64 age group, the split was 56/44 per cent in favour of Brexit, a split that was reversed in the 26-49 age group.

Among those under 25, there was broad support for staying in the EU, but, while 73 per cent voted in favour of Remain, that was on a turn-out of 64 per cent. There were arguments at the time over whether, if the young had voted in the same strength as the over-65s, there would have been a Remain majority. That does not seem to be so, but it would have made the Brexit majority wafer-thin.