China's Gambia gambit a shot across Tsai Ying-wen's bow

THE shock announcement that China and Gambia have established diplomatic relations raises the spectre of a return to the cross-straits diplomatic rivalry via chequebook diplomacy that prevailed before Ma Ying-jeou became the island's leader in 2008. In the eight years of Chen Shui-bian's presidency, nine countries abandoned Taiwan, with the last one, Malawi, doing so weeks before Mr Ma was swept into office in a landslide. Malawi was following in the footsteps of Macedonia, Liberia, Dominica, Vanuatu, Grenada, Senegal, Chad and Costa Rica. Only one country, the Caribbean island of Saint Lucia, moved in the opposite direction during that period.

The reason for these diplomatic switches was economic. Some countries, such as Malawi, switched sides multiple times, depending on who made the better offer. Such contests came to an end after Mr Ma announced a diplomatic truce and China accepted.

The first test came within months of Mr Ma's inauguration when a new president, Fernandu Lugo, was elected in Paraguay, the only South American country that recognised Taiwan. Mr Lugo had said during the campaign that he wanted to establish relations with Beijing, but this did not happen. The following year, El Salvador president-elect Mauricio Funes declared that he was considering the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing.