Downside of populist campaigns in Indonesia

ELECTION campaigns are well known to generate more rhetoric than substance, and the contenders in Indonesia's upcoming presidential contest appear to be fully living up to this expectation. But the rampant populism on display can do more harm than good.

The strikingly similar agenda being offered to voters by the two candidates, Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and retired general Prabowo Subianto, is a blend of nationalism and protectionism that is unapologetically business-unfriendly. For instance, they both want to limit the role of foreign investment in the economy, impose taxes on exports of resources and maintain the ban on mineral ore exports. Favouring state-sponsored infrastructure projects, both are also trying to outdo each other on how many thousand kilometres of roads and rail tracks and how many airports and seaports they plan to construct, with no mention of where the funding for all this will come from.

Some analysts suggest that much of this is just electoral rhetoric and that good sense will prevail once the new president is in office and actually starts to govern. Hopefully they are right. But there is a danger that nationalistic populism can take on a life of its own, especially when such ideas are seen to be vote-winners. Expectations can be created and vested interests can coalesce around policies that may then be difficult to reverse. Foreign investors would also feel uncomfortable by some of the overtones of the campaign, which even if not translated into policy, can be whipped up again and again.