Reasons for optimism about the long term

NOT only is the planet's rotation slowing down because of tidal forces between Earth and the Moon, so is its economy. Roughly every 100 years, the day loses about 1.4 thousandths of a second, but perhaps more urgently for us the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a lowering of global GDP growth next year - down to 3.4 per cent, compared to a 3.6 per cent forecast last October. In both cases these are small changes, but small is important - as China's proverb about butterfly wings' movement suggests.

At present, the great issue for the world's economy is overcapacity. As every manufacturer knows, for each of their products, supply chains are difficult to design. But globally, the chains from minerals to delivery of consumer products as well as delivery of fuels to heat our homes and factories is nigh on impossible to align perfectly. I will illustrate this via the world's shipping industry.

Bulk carriers for minerals like metal ores or coal are retired and new ones built on a cycle. Over 2010-2013, there was too little capacity; now, huge new ships are too large to berth at most ports and through recent launchings there is now overcapacity. According to the Baltic Dry Index (a data tracking firm), such ships can be hired for £3,000 (S$6,130) per day - a price well below operating costs, yet accepted by owners just to keep the supply chains moving.