War without end?

THE forces arrayed against ISIS in Iraq seem to have such a decisive advantage in number and armament that the outcome of their offensive to retake Mosul seems hardly to be in doubt. After that, the entire ISIS position in northern Iraq should crumble, and then it could not be long before operations aimed at destroying ISIS in Syria culminate in the capture of Raqqa. Possibly.

The problem is that all parties to the conflicts in Iraq and Syria are well able to look beyond ISIS and imagine how what they do in the near future will shape their own prospects vis-a-vis one another if ISIS ceased to exist, and so cooperating against it may well not be their priority. This could yet prolong the life of a brutal terrorist group, which would never have established its sway over a significant territory in the Middle East if pre-existing rivalries had not provided it with an opening.

The Iraqi and Syrian governments are both primarily concerned with asserting their authority over the whole of their national territories, but without undertaking reforms to create more open societies in which citizenship counts for more than national or religious affiliation. The conflict with ISIS is subordinate to this preoccupation. In Iraq, there are no other effective opposition forces in the predominantly Sunni Arab north, and so the government and Shi'ite militias concentrate against ISIS by necessity as well as choice.