Washington's Taiwan Travel Act threatens regional stability

BEIJING's present difficulties over its trade relationship with the United States will be nothing compared to what will come if Washington's Taiwan Travel Act is given full force. It will upend the China-US triangular links over the island.

The new law encourages "officials at all levels of the United States government" to visit and meet with their Taipei counterparts and to "allow high-level officials of Taiwan" to enter the US and to meet with their American counterparts, among other goals. Without actually saying so, this act vitiates the so-called One China principle. No wonder then that President Xi Jinping was quick to declare: "Any action and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will meet with the people's condemnation and the punishment of history." The snag for Mr Xi and for the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is that Mr Trump may be completely indifferent to either prospect.

Why has the situation come to this? To begin with, in 2005 the Communists passed a law enabling the use of "non-peaceful means" against any move towards Taiwan independence - as defined by Beijing. But the Chinese have always underestimated the support Taipei enjoys within Washington's power establishment. While previous administrations chose to maintain a clear diplomatic distance from Taipei, the current team has more anti-China hawks who seem to enjoy baiting Mr Xi. They also seem persuaded, perhaps by intelligence reports, that Mr Xi is moving to take the island by force by 2021 in time for the CCP's centennial celebrations. It is also the target date the Chinese leader has set for the country to achieve the status of "xiaokang" - a moderately well-off nation. If Taiwan comes within its fold as well, it would mean a historic achievement for Mr Xi in fulfilling his version of the Chinese Dream. It should also be noted that as time goes on, the "Chinese" element in the Taiwanese identity is fading. As well, thanks to Beijing's propaganda efforts, Mr Xi's own people are calling for unification by force. And having amassed power in his hands and made himself chairman of almost everything, he may feel compelled to deliver, despite the risks.