Why populism may only grow in the 2020s

CONTROVERSIAL Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro celebrated on Wednesday his first anniversary in power in South America's most populous and economically important democracy. His unexpected rise to power epitomises the growth of populism in the 2010s. With academic research suggesting that a staggering two billion of the world's population are now governed by such populist leaders, there are major implications not just for politics but also economics too.

While many headlines in recent years have been dominated by high-profile conservative populists such as Mr Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump, this research underlines that the growth of populism is a much broader, diverse phenomena. This upending of the global landscape is highlighted in the Global Populism Database, which was commissioned by The Guardian and built by a global network of scholars.

The data highlights the breadth of what is around a two-decade rise in populism by analysing speeches - through textual analysis - by key leaders in 40 countries. The research found that that some 20 years ago, populist leaders governed only a handful of states with populations over 20 million - including Italy, Argentina and Venezuela. Take the example of the controversial billionaire businessman Silvio Berlusconi who served as maverick Italian prime minister from 2001-2006, providing a template for the rise of Mr Trump a decade later.