Why the European Union may face its most troubled winter in decades

THE Winter of 2020, during the peak of the pandemic in Europe, was a terrible time for the region with the worst health crisis for decades. Yet, the end of 2022 could be an even more troubled period with the prospect of an energy emergency, and a possible resurgence in the coronavirus crisis.

With the continent preparing for what may be its most difficult autumn and winter since World War II nearly 80 years ago, the European Union (EU) agreed on Tuesday (Jul 26) to a major proposal to reduce the consumption of gas. This could have significant implications for European businesses and households from next month till March 2023.

Russia is increasingly seen in the West to be “weaponising” energy supplies, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed it is likely that Russia will cut off all supplies of gas in the coming months. This challenging energy picture is impacting Europe’s economic outlook with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest forecast this week, which downgraded the growth of the 27-member EU bloc in 2022 to 2.6 per cent (down from 5.4 per cent in 2021). The IMF has projected growth of just 1.2 per cent for 2023, with the risks all weighted heavily to the downside.