WHILE the Covid-19 pandemic was running wild, all anyone wanted was a return to normal.

At the time, however, pundits warned there was no going back. Supply chains were choked and spending patterns distorted forever, they said. Even handshakes were supposedly history.

Economic normalcy is now returning, yet pundits view this return of the old normal as risky.

They preach FEAR: false evidence appearing real. You should instead CHEER: celebrate hidden examples of equilibrium’s return.

Singapore’s circuit-breaker measures of 2020 wreaked economic havoc and accelerated some very real changes. They turbocharged online commerce and the rise of delivery services offered by the likes of Grab.

Working from home (WFH), too, is a new normal that may never fully revert to the old. An International Monetary Fund study found 73 per cent of Singapore workers prefer hybrid work – above the 63 per cent global average.

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The WFH preference stirs commercial real estate uncertainty – globally and in Singapore – but it also potentially reduces companies’ long-run real estate costs.

Meanwhile, many of the stressors once feared permanent have faded. Take travel. Yes, Singapore’s tourism lags pre-pandemic levels. It is, however, on the mend.

October arrivals jumped 37.8 per cent year on year, and the Singapore Tourism Board noted that old seasonal visitation trends are returning.

In the United States, the latest air passenger volume has topped 2019’s. The Global Business Travel Association said corporate travel spending is accelerating above expectations and should exceed pre-Covid levels in 2024.

No doubt, none of this is the same as rejoining tourism growth trendlines. Who knows where we would be if Covid never happened? Even so, claims of scary paradigm shifts are dead wrong.

What about supply chain chaos? In October, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index notched its best-ever reading since 1997.

Certainly, some Singapore companies have reported supply constraints. At the same time, US manufacturing supplier delivery times have plunged and shipping costs have nosedived.

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index is down 81 per cent from January 2022’s high, mirroring global trends. Just-in-time manufacturing is returning, supplanting the just-in-case Covid mindset that drove inventory gluts.

Backlogs at the Port of Singapore and other major hubs are gone amid global reopenings. Recent drought-induced reductions of daily Panama Canal crossings are temporary and have already thinned dramatically since summer.

Bears also worry that falling personal savings rates suggest consumers are tapped out. Look deeper, I say.

US personal savings peaked at a bloated 26.1 per cent of post-tax income in March 2021 – dwarfing today’s 3.4 per cent.

These lockdown-era savings spikes were hugely anomalous, however, as America dished out stimulus payments while lockdowns limited spending options.

From 2000 through 2019, US personal savings rates averaged 5.2 per cent. During America’s bull market of 2002 to 2007, they averaged 4 per cent.

Today’s rates are only a smidge lower, which is understandable given that consumers built big cash cushions during the pandemic.

In Singapore, the personal savings rate moderated slightly in Q3 2023 to 31.7 per cent – from Q2’s 32.3 per cent. That is far below Q2 2020’s booming 49.4 per cent rate, but is trending towards the average of 21.7 per cent between 2000 and 2019.

Money supply data does raise some eyebrows. The US’ M4 – the broadest monetary measure – has been shrinking since December. In the eurozone, M3 is falling.

Normally, I might worry too. Consider, though, that central bankers and governments’ insane opening of monetary firehoses wasn’t normal. It spurred rampant inflation. The US M4 pullback – down 1.7 per cent year on year through September – actually signals sanity’s return.

China, Singapore’s biggest trade partner, seems to have plenty of worries – in real estate, manufacturing and construction.

Nevertheless, its Q3 GDP grew 4.9 per cent. Analysts still expect 5.2 per cent growth this year. In 2019, China grew 5.9 per cent – continuing a long, natural slowdown as its huge economy matured. This year merely rejoins that old trendline.

The one big difference since 2019 is interest rates. Take comfort – global inflation’s uneven slowing suggests recent declines in rates are no fluke.

Singapore’s yields seem unlikely to soar from here. Maybe we won’t see the super-low levels of 2009 to 2021. That’s fine. Stocks and economies have risen with comparable rates through most of history.

The old normal of 2019 wasn’t perfect. Neither is the normal now. No period ever is. Markets don’t need perfection to rise – just a good-enough condition to relieve fear. That is reason to cheer.

The writer is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, an independent investment adviser serving both individual and institutional investors globally