Near-term global conflict unlikely, despite decaying post-war order

THIS week marks the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) day, a momentous moment in World War II which remains the largest armed conflict in human history. Three quarters of a century on, while another great power conflict cannot be ruled out, the odds are currently lower than during the first half of the 20th century, despite the deep decay of the post-1945 order.

For amid this year's coronavirus-restricted celebrations of VE Day, and the later ones in August for Victory in the Pacific Day, there are growing geopolitical tensions, not least between China and the United States. These have spiked recently over what US President Donald Trump continues to assert is Beijing's cover-up of the pandemic in Wuhan which he claims was man-made and originated in a Chinese laboratory, despite failing to disclose evidence to support this claim.

The Sino-US tensions underline that the world of today does have some parallels with the first half of the 20th century. Once again, there is a significant movement in global power taking place.