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To avoid nasty surprises, don't try to predict the future - instead, stay aware of all possibilities, says Richard Fenning, Singapore-based CEO of global specialist risk consultancy Control Risks.

"Calculating risk is a cerebral, rational process where you carefully evaluate data and you draw objective conclusions of the likelihood of something happening or not. Fear is a much more visceral, irrational, emotional response to very specific circumstances... The problem from a corporate point of view is that our instinctive fear of danger sometimes is confused with our rational ability to calculate risk." - Richard Fenning.

AS TEMPTING as it can be to draw lessons from history, Richard Fenning cautions against doing so blindly - as a one-time student of history himself, and as chief executive officer of global specialist risk consultancy Control Risks.

"Yes, history can teach us things about the future," he...

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