CEOs and the market anticipate a recession, which is unusual ahead of recessions

BRACE yourselves, a recession is coming. So say global headlines, which also warn that a worldwide economic downturn is sure to wreck stocks that have rallied from October lows.

Maybe a recession is coming, or maybe it is already here. Maybe not. But forewarned is forearmed. If a 2023 global recession occurs, surveys and data show it would arguably be the most anticipated recession ever – sapping its market power. That helps tee up an unexpectedly strong 2023 for global stocks and the Straits Times Index (STI).

In my 50 years’ professionally managing money, global recessions have always been shocks. Few believe one is coming until well after its start. Then it surprises, negatively. Now, however, nearly everyone envisions a global downturn – despite the dicey evidence I detailed in January.