BARRING occasional expressions of hope, there is agreement that oil prices are racing to the bottom. You may pick a number from competing forecasts for your comfort level or await a still-better one. Someone will soon be predicting single digits for the benchmarks.

A reversal is not easily guessed until one or more market factors change: US shale output slumps; Chinese economy strengthens; Saudi Arabia cuts production and Russia joins in. There seems little chance of any of these occurring immediately.

Consumers are happy that their real income is growing. Oil-starved nations, particularly those in Asia, will cheer at their cascading import bills.