US recession nowhere in sight, but inflation may prove more stubborn
A more pronounced decline in inflation is needed to coincide with the full rate-cutting cycle priced in markets
AS FEBRUARY draws to a close, we now see that the US economy not only skirted the much anticipated (including by this author) recession in 2023, but also saw second-half GDP growth accelerating relative to a moderately growing first half.
With the US economy on an apparently firmer trajectory, this begs the question – what happened to the most widely anticipated recession in history?
Even astute observers of the US economy are rightly confused, as many recessionary signs emerged in 2023. The industrial sector saw output drop by nearly 1 per cent year on year in autumn 2023, in response to contracting industrial sales earlier in the year. Historically, contraction in both measures has coincided with US recessions.
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